Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:26:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5D 0x5d30…1a5e sports 539 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$242 (-1%) realized −$246 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%284W / 252L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$474
7 days−$70
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$466
other 3% −$439
culture 1% −$263
crypto 1% −$20
politics 0% +$6
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +22.5% +10.8% 53% 53% -14.4%
≤30d 55 +15.8% +4.7% 49% 49% -11.0%
≤90d 55 +15.8% +4.7% 49% 49% -11.0%
all 536 +2.5% -7.3% 53% 47% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 47% -10.1%
10% -16.1% 44% -18.7%
15% -24.2% 37% -26.5%
20% -31.7% 32% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$42 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$246
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses284 / 252
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)536 / 539
History coverage235d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 536 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $109 $106 −$3 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $35 $38 +$2 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $17 +$4 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $298 −$294 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $23 +$17 +73%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $53 −$53 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $52 +$48 +93%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $29 +$31 +105%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $27 +$23 +83%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $63 −$62 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $23 −$22 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $42 +$58 +140%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $35 +$65 +182%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $35 +$65 +188%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $14 +$46 +344%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $28 −$28 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $22 +$18 +79%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 +$45 +152%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $88 +$62 +70%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $9 +$16 +178%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $21 +$14 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $24 +$36 +150%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$35 +70%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $17 −$17 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $64 +$81 +126%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $112 −$111 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $16 +$14 +93%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$20 +101%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $157 +$159 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $27 −$27 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 +$26 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $19 +$31 +165%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $18 +$32 +180%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 +$36 +250%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $28 +$22 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $112 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $199 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $99 13h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $26 15h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $25 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 17h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $23 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 19h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $25 19h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 48¢ $29 40h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 54¢ $27 40h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 42h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 45h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 45h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 37¢ $23 2d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 44¢ $22 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 30¢ $12 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 30¢ $3 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $20 4d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 34¢ $35 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $28 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $22 5d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $30 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $7 5d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 38¢ $19 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.52 · official $161.52 (match) · 1828 history records