Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d33…2224 other 86 markets active 6d ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%81W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% $0
crypto 22% +$1
world 6% $0
culture 6% $0
politics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
sports 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 17 -5.7% -14.6% 94% 0% -9.6%
all 84 -1.8% -11.1% 96% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 1% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses81 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage253d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $97 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $97 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $97 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $97 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $2 −$2 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 07 $99 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 07 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 28 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 20? Apr 24 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 14? Apr 20 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 13 $99 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 24? Mar 29 $97 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 23 $97 $0 +0%
Will "Scream 7" Second Weekend Box Office be between 28m and 31m? Mar 16 $95 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Mar 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Mar 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Mar 08 $94 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 12 $94 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? Feb 04 $94 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google dip to $215 in January? Feb 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of January 202 Feb 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Feb 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google reach $420 in January? Feb 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ja Feb 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? Feb 01 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 28 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 24 $75 $0 +0%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 30m Jan 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 19 $73 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Obama federally charged in 2025? Jan 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will Solana reach $500 before 2026? Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or below on December 27? Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $440b on December 31? Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 6d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 20d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 25d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 31d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 35d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 41d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $99 50d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 58d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 65d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 72d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $97 80d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $97 86d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 93d
Will "Scream 7" Second Weekend Box Office be between 28m and 31m? BUY No 100¢ $95 101d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 BUY No 100¢ $94 125d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $94 133d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $94 133d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $94 136d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 140d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $75 144d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $75 149d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 158d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 158d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 96¢ $1 158d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 158d
Will Google reach $420 in January? BUY No 100¢ $1 158d
Will Google dip to $215 in January? BUY No 100¢ $1 158d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.24 · official $2.24 (match) · 168 history records