Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:30:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d36…8f64 crypto 239 markets active 0h ago coverage 401d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,491 (-6%) realized −$3,602 · open +$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%67W / 171L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$332est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$636now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$326
7 days−$303
14 days+$1,515
30 days+$7,453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$8,039
sports 34% +$10,799
crypto 23% −$4,237
culture 1% −$837
world 1% −$583
politics 1% −$454
tech 0% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -41.5% -47.1% 28% 28% -16.6%
≤30d 57 -26.6% -33.6% 30% 30% +49.5%
≤90d 189 -31.5% -38.0% 27% 27% -28.7%
all 238 -28.3% -35.1% 28% 28% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 28% -14.9%
10% -41.3% 28% -23.0%
15% -47.0% 26% -30.5%
20% -52.2% 24% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -31% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$461 vs −$201 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

401d coverage
Net worth$636
Realized−$3,602
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses67 / 171
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$332
Open positions1
Markets (closed)238 / 239
History coverage401d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $525 $636 +$111 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $112 +$222 +199%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $27 −$26 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $422 +$254 +60%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $327 +$94 +29%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $386 +$41 +11%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $9 −$9 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 23 $19 −$19 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 23 $250 +$168 +67%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists Jun 22 $264 −$258 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $97 −$95 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $153 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $34 −$32 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $300 +$194 +65%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $150 −$148 -99%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $196 −$193 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$29 -94%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $75 +$275 +365%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $233 −$229 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $263 −$259 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$31 -95%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $215 +$217 +101%
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Jun 16 $150 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $80 −$75 -94%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $148 +$379 +256%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $247 +$239 +97%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $94 +$35 +38%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $101 +$65 +64%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Steve Garcia win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $55 −$52 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $339 +$586 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $152 −$152 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $349 +$1,652 +473%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $296 −$291 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $246 −$239 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $37 −$36 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $354 −$350 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $264 +$91 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 04 $37 −$35 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 22m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $310 28m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 2¢ $5 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $635.61 · official $635.61 (match) · 797 history records