Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d3a…78e7 crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$78 (+11%) realized +$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%20W / 15L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day89.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -20.2% -27.8% 57% 29% -7.6%
≤30d 35 -20.2% -27.8% 57% 29% -7.6%
≤90d 35 -20.2% -27.8% 57% 29% -7.6%
all 35 -20.2% -27.8% 57% 29% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.8% 29% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -34.7% 20% -16.5%
15% -41.0% 14% -24.5%
20% -46.8% 9% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses20 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day89.0
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $77 −$19 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$14 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$21 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$104 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$12 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $55 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $51 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $28 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.92 · official $1.92 (match) · 95 history records