Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:40:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d3b…3a20 weather 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$244 (-8%) realized −$217 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate36%40W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$57
14 days−$57
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 57% −$250
world 17% −$3
politics 12% −$2
other 9% −$4
sports 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -22.4% -29.8% 32% 26% -17.7%
≤30d 37 -21.1% -28.6% 35% 30% -17.2%
≤90d 110 -13.4% -21.7% 36% 18% -17.4%
all 110 -13.4% -21.7% 36% 18% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 18% -17.4%
10% -29.2% 15% -25.3%
15% -36.0% 14% -32.5%
20% -42.3% 10% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized−$217
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses40 / 70
Open positions8
Markets (closed)110 / 118
History coverage89d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? No 52¢ 87¢ $63 $106 +$43 (+68%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? Yes 81¢ 36¢ $131 $59 −$72 (-55%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? Yes 36¢ 44¢ $20 $25 +$4 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $27 $22 −$5 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 22? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $20 $22 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 22? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 22? Yes 40¢ 34¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22? Yes 10¢ 17¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $20 +$26 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $79 +$15 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 −$2 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $20 −$11 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $24 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $19 −$8 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $39 −$9 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 −$19 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $17 −$3 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $13 −$7 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $18 +$7 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 21? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 21? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 21? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $15 +$39 +254%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $27 +$42 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $16 +$49 +308%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? Jun 19 $22 −$20 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 20? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 +$3 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $46 +$14 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 30? May 31 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on May 30? May 30 $8 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 21? May 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 17? May 17 $41 −$40 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 14? May 14 $21 +$21 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on May 14? May 14 $20 +$5 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 12? May 12 $19 −$19 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on May 9? May 09 $6 +$19 +323%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 7? May 07 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 7? May 07 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 7? May 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 7? May 07 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 6? May 06 $6 +$3 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 6? May 06 $5 +$15 +293%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 4? May 04 $6 +$7 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? BUY Yes 85¢ $91 35m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 22? SELL Yes 77¢ $42 58m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 70¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 51¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 51¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 22? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? BUY Yes 74¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? BUY Yes 74¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 25¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 30¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 43¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 22? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 22? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 48¢ $26 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 22? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 22? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 22? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.65 · official $287.67 (match) · 1083 history records