Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:57:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d3b…91ab crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-5%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -4.5% -13.6% 67% 33% -11.6%
≤30d 15 -4.5% -13.6% 67% 33% -11.6%
≤90d 15 -4.5% -13.6% 67% 33% -11.6%
all 15 -4.5% -13.6% 67% 33% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 33% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 27% -20.1%
15% -29.4% 27% -27.8%
20% -36.4% 27% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.93 · official $0.93 (match) · 30 history records