Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d3c…4929 weather 337 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$199 (-7%) realized −$187 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate76%251W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$8
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$71
sports 25% −$51
weather 16% −$5
crypto 14% −$78
world 11% −$16
tech 5% +$2
politics 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -6.2% -15.1% 57% 29% -13.5%
≤30d 112 -3.9% -13.0% 82% 13% -17.6%
≤90d 179 -17.1% -25.0% 68% 12% -29.1%
all 330 -4.6% -13.7% 76% 24% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 24% -16.7%
10% -21.9% 14% -24.7%
15% -29.5% 7% -31.9%
20% -36.4% 3% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized−$187
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses251 / 79
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)330 / 337
History coverage155d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026? No 92¢ 84¢ $116 $105 −$11 (-9%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? No 50¢ 50¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 28? No 91¢ 94¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 29? No 63¢ 61¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 29? No 55¢ 52¢ $24 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 29? No 90¢ 92¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Will Factset Research Systems (FDS) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 75¢ 75¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 28? Jun 27 $31 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $88 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? Jun 26 $81 −$11 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $20 −$7 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $41 −$32 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 70°F or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 2? Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2? Jun 03 $5 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 2? Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 2? Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 2? Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $6 −$2 -33%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$1 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$4 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $15 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 02 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 02 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 29? BUY No 90¢ $14 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 29? BUY No 63¢ $26 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $20 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 28? BUY No 93¢ $13 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 29? BUY No 54¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 29? BUY No 55¢ $12 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 29? BUY No 55¢ $11 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 28? SELL No 95¢ $33 3h
Will Factset Research Systems (FDS) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 82¢ $3 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 28? BUY No 88¢ $31 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 28? BUY No 90¢ $11 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 28? BUY No 90¢ $7 4h
Will Factset Research Systems (FDS) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 24h
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $4 24h
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $17 24h
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $19 24h
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 24h
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 24h
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 24h
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $19 24h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $88 24h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $88 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? SELL No 60¢ $39 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? SELL No 64¢ $24 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? BUY No 68¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? BUY No 68¢ $4 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? BUY No 68¢ $7 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? BUY No 68¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? BUY No 68¢ $14 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.58 · official $238.00 (match) · 821 history records