trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 14 | -41.8% | -47.3% | 21% | 21% | -3.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -47.3% | 21% | -3.0% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -52.4% | 14% | -12.3% |
| 15% | -57.0% | 7% | -20.8% |
| 20% | -61.2% | 7% | -28.6% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Sep 19 | $2,262 | −$2,262 | -100% |
| 2 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Sep 18 | $1,886 | −$1,886 | -100% |
| Will Kamala say "Jew" in August? | Sep 17 | $1,256 | +$344 | +27% |
| JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? | Sep 17 | $26,015 | +$3,303 | +13% |
| Will RFK drop out before November? | Aug 23 | $215 | −$215 | -100% |
| Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Aug 06 | $6,272 | −$6,269 | -100% |
| Will Mark Kelly be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Aug 06 | $1,288 | −$1,288 | -100% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Aug 05 | $21,289 | −$19,172 | -90% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Aug 05 | $171 | −$171 | -100% |
| Will J. B. Pritzker be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Aug 04 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will RFK Jr. drop out before September? | Jul 27 | $17,873 | −$17,873 | -100% |
| Obama endorses Kamala as Dem Nominee? | Jul 26 | $3,370 | −$3,370 | -100% |
| Will Ben Carson win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Jul 16 | $735 | −$735 | -100% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Jul 16 | $10,870 | +$51,639 | +475% |