Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:55:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d3d…c539 politics 14 markets active 648d ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,944 (+2%) realized +$1,944 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%3W / 11L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$6,686per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 75% +$23,835
other 21% −$17,744
sports 4% −$4,148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-47.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 14 -41.8% -47.3% 21% 21% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.3% 21% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -52.4% 14% -12.3%
15% -57.0% 7% -20.8%
20% -61.2% 7% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
75.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18,428 vs −$4,849 · ×3.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,944
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage81d
Avg bet$6,686
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? Sep 19 $2,262 −$2,262 -100%
2 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? Sep 18 $1,886 −$1,886 -100%
Will Kamala say "Jew" in August? Sep 17 $1,256 +$344 +27%
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? Sep 17 $26,015 +$3,303 +13%
Will RFK drop out before November? Aug 23 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 06 $6,272 −$6,269 -100%
Will Mark Kelly be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 06 $1,288 −$1,288 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 05 $21,289 −$19,172 -90%
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 05 $171 −$171 -100%
Will J. B. Pritzker be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will RFK Jr. drop out before September? Jul 27 $17,873 −$17,873 -100%
Obama endorses Kamala as Dem Nominee? Jul 26 $3,370 −$3,370 -100%
Will Ben Carson win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 16 $735 −$735 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 16 $10,870 +$51,639 +475%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes $1,250 648d
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes $275 648d
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes $275 648d
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes $10 648d
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes $90 648d
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes $18 648d
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes $0 648d
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes $7 648d
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes $7 648d
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes $0 648d
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes $7 648d
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes $151 648d
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes $9 648d
2 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes 21¢ $56 648d
2 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes 21¢ $32 648d
2 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes 21¢ $542 648d
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes $16 648d
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes $6 648d
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes $134 649d
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes $7 649d
2 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes 21¢ $45 649d
2 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes 21¢ $375 649d
2 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes 22¢ $185 649d
2 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes 22¢ $431 649d
2 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 649d
2 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 649d
2 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 649d
2 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes 22¢ $176 649d
2 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? BUY Yes 22¢ $29 649d
Will RFK drop out before November? BUY No $60 674d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1092 history records