Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d3e…49c7 weather 222 markets active 1h ago coverage 548d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate41%88W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 31% $0
other 25% −$5
politics 19% −$10
culture 8% +$1
crypto 7% +$1
tech 5% $0
sports 2% −$6
finance 1% $0
economics 1% −$3
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 79 -0.0% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 151 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 213 -3.9% -13.0% 41% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 1% -10.0%
10% -21.3% 1% -18.6%
15% -28.9% 1% -26.5%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses88 / 125
Open positions9
Markets (closed)213 / 222
History coverage548d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the June meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Waymo launch in Washington DC by June 30 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Amie Baca-Oehlert be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Theo James announced as next James Bond? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? No 100¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C or higher on June 3 Jun 29 $21 $0 -0%
Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30? Jun 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 29? Jun 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 29? Jun 29 $23 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 63°F or below on June 2 Jun 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 28 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 29? Jun 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 28? Jun 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 28? Jun 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? Jun 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 41°C on June 28? Jun 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 27? Jun 27 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? Jun 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 27? Jun 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 27? Jun 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 25? Jun 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $43 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 25? Jun 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 24? Jun 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 44°C on June 8? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will 290 to 319 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026? Jun 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on June 4? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 4? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 53 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Gina Viola finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angel Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Don Primus be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $11 50m
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026 BUY No 100¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C or higher on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C or higher on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $9 2h
Theo James announced as next James Bond? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C or higher on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C or higher on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $8 2h
Will Waymo launch in Washington DC by June 30 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $4 11h
Will Amie Baca-Oehlert be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? BUY No 100¢ $5 12h
Theo James announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $8 13h
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the June meet BUY No 100¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C or higher on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $21 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $23 17h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $23 18h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? SELL No 100¢ $17 19h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 63°F or below on June 2 SELL No 100¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 63°F or below on June 2 SELL No 100¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 63°F or below on June 2 SELL No 100¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 63°F or below on June 2 SELL No 100¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 63°F or below on June 2 SELL No 100¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 63°F or below on June 2 BUY No 100¢ $23 23h
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 25h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $22 25h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? SELL No 100¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $26 25h
Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $8 27h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.41 · official $92.12 (match) · 492 history records