trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +73.7% | +57.1% | 100% | 100% | +59.5% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +6.0% | -4.1% | 89% | 22% | -5.9% |
| all | 15 | -9.1% | -17.7% | 80% | 13% | -6.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.7% | 13% | -6.5% |
| 10% | -25.6% | 13% | -15.5% |
| 15% | -32.8% | 13% | -23.6% |
| 20% | -39.4% | 13% | -31.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 68¢ | 68¢ | $526 | $522 | −$4 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $186 | +$154 | +83% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 29 | $101 | +$66 | +65% |
| Pistons vs. Magic | Apr 27 | $193 | −$191 | -99% |
| Will March 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? | Apr 27 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | Apr 27 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025? | Apr 27 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? | Apr 27 | $23 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Apr 27 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 11? | Apr 27 | $179 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | Mar 02 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 25 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Feb 03 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Meta (META) finish week of January 5 above $720? | Feb 03 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Feb 03 | $30 | +$2 | +6% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition | Jan 06 | $20 | $0 | +0% |