Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5d44…bd55 sports 226 markets active 1h ago coverage 662d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$496 (-36%) realized −$496 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%120W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$470
politics 5% −$18
economics 4% $0
other 3% −$1
world 1% −$3
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% −$4
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 40 +20.5% +9.0% 90% 52% +3.1%
all 223 -19.5% -27.2% 54% 40% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 40% -41.8%
10% -34.1% 35% -47.4%
15% -40.5% 29% -52.5%
20% -46.3% 22% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

662d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$496
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses120 / 103
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)223 / 226
History coverage662d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? May 02 $2 $0 +2%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $5 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? May 01 $1 $0 +0%
US currency with Trump signature issued by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1 Apr 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026? Apr 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 19? Apr 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,650 on April 18? Apr 24 $2 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Flames: O/U 6.5 Apr 24 $2 +$2 +82%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 24 $20 $0 +0%
Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5 Apr 16 $3 +$2 +85%
Kings vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5 Apr 16 $4 +$3 +79%
Hurricanes vs. Utah: O/U 7.5 Apr 13 $2 +$1 +39%
Canucks vs. Sharks: O/U 7.5 Apr 13 $2 +$1 +45%
Penguins vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5 Apr 13 $3 +$2 +52%
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 Apr 10 $1 $0 +39%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks: O/U 7.5 Apr 10 $1 $0 +37%
Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 4.5 Apr 10 $1 $0 +22%
Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 Apr 10 $2 +$2 +92%
Blues vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5 Apr 10 $5 +$1 +28%
Spread: Wild (-1.5) Apr 05 $1 +$1 +45%
Flyers vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5 Apr 05 $3 +$1 +35%
Capitals vs. Devils: O/U 4.5 Apr 05 $4 +$1 +24%
Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5 Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 4.5 Apr 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-12.5) Mar 28 $1 +$1 +72%
Spread: Clippers (-10.5) Mar 28 $1 +$1 +82%
Blackhawks vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5 Mar 28 $1 +$1 +92%
Nets vs. Lakers: O/U 219.5 Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5 Mar 26 $2 +$2 +79%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5 Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5 Mar 21 $1 +$1 +108%
Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5 Mar 20 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 18 $1 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. Wizards Mar 18 $6 $0 +8%
Spurs vs. Clippers Mar 17 $6 +$2 +35%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 16 $2 +$1 +72%
Magic vs. Heat Mar 15 $2 +$3 +156%
Bucks vs. Hawks Mar 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Suns vs. Raptors Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Nets vs. Hawks Mar 13 $11 +$1 +10%
Raptors vs. Pelicans Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? Mar 11 $2 $0 +0%
Pacers vs. Kings Mar 11 $11 +$8 +70%
Hornets vs. Trail Blazers Mar 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $1 23d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 24d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $2 25d
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 45d
US currency with Trump signature issued by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 45d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 47d
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1 BUY No 100¢ $2 48d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 50d
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? BUY No 98¢ $2 51d
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 51d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 53d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 57d
Will Ethereum reach $2,650 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $2 58d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 59d
Kings vs. Flames: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 60d
Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 54¢ $3 61d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 61d
Kings vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $4 61d
Penguins vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 66¢ $3 64d
Canucks vs. Sharks: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 69¢ $2 64d
Hurricanes vs. Utah: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 72¢ $2 65d
Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2 66d
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 72¢ $1 67d
Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1 69d
Blackhawks vs. Sharks: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 73¢ $1 70d
Blues vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $5 70d
Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 71¢ $1 72d
Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 77¢ $7 72d
Flyers vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.20 · official $7.20 (match) · 368 history records