Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d45…f246 world 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-3%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%12W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$2
politics 29% −$1
other 20% $0
sports 16% −$80
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 57 -1.1% -10.6% 21% 0% -9.7%
all 58 -2.8% -12.1% 21% 0% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -12.7%
10% -20.5% 0% -21.1%
15% -28.2% 0% -28.7%
20% -35.2% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses12 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage485d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $45 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $26 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $102 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $17 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $68 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $32 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $18 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $69 $0 -0%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? May 18 $6 −$1 -22%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $33 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $60 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $7 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $79 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $4 $0 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $40 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $9 $0 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 08 $116 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $45 $0 +1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $82 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $1 $0 -8%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $79 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $17 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $17 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 9h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 28h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 28h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $0 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $9 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $26 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $26 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $33 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $17 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $3 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $29 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $32 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $32 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $24 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $8 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 90¢ $32 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $32 9d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 72¢ $36 9d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 72¢ $36 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $36 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.13 · official $35.50 (match) · 216 history records