Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:48:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5D 0x5d47…5a53 crypto 192 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (146 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24,171 (-33%) realized −$24,170 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%95W / 190L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$382per market
Trades / day146.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10,418
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (146 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -80.9% -82.7% 10% 7% -82.3%
≤30d 285 -36.2% -42.3% 33% 30% -51.9%
≤90d 285 -36.2% -42.3% 33% 30% -51.9%
all 285 -36.2% -42.3% 33% 30% -51.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover146.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.3% 30% -51.9%
10% ← realistic here -47.8% 28% -56.5%
15% -52.8% 25% -60.7%
20% -57.5% 20% -64.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$512) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -77% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$224 vs −$396 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$24,170
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses95 / 190
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)285 / 192
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$382
Trades / day146.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 180 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 30 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 30 $677 −$677 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 30 $3,384 −$3,384 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 30 $182 +$206 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 30 $415 −$415 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 30 $248 −$248 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 30 $175 −$60 -34%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 30 $219 −$219 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 30 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 30 $1,318 −$1,318 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 30 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 30 $667 −$667 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 30 $453 −$453 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 30 $300 −$300 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 30 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 30 $312 −$312 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 30 $275 −$275 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 30 $560 −$560 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 30 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 30 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 30 $299 −$299 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 30 $1,128 −$1,128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 30 $249 −$248 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 30 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 30 $1,044 −$1,044 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 30 $558 −$558 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 30 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 30 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 30 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 30 $572 −$572 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 30 $671 −$671 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 30 $515 −$515 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 30 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 30 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 30 $1,090 −$1,090 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 30 $965 −$965 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 30 $1,287 −$1,287 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 30 $837 −$910 -109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 30 $941 −$941 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 30 $191 −$191 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 30 $438 −$438 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 30 $1,702 −$1,702 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 30 $1,140 −$1,103 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 30 $356 −$356 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 30 $184 −$184 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $89 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $19 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $367 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $95 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $8 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $9 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.25 · official $9.25 (match) · 3500 history records