Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:58:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d48…a59c crypto 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 575d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$71 (+1%) realized +$74 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate88%68W / 9L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$13
14 days+$18
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$53
other 26% +$24
politics 10% +$5
world 3% −$100
sports 3% +$82
finance 3% +$2
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +12.1% +1.4% 100% 100% +1.4%
≤30d 4 +4.7% -5.3% 100% 25% -4.3%
≤90d 11 -6.1% -15.0% 91% 9% -16.3%
all 77 +4.5% -5.4% 88% 6% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 6% -8.2%
10% -14.5% 4% -17.0%
15% -22.7% 4% -25.0%
20% -30.3% 4% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$14 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

575d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses68 / 9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)77 / 81
History coverage575d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Congo DR be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 90¢ $134 $130 −$4 (-3%)
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Spain? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $108 +$13 +12%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? Jun 01 $60 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? May 05 $50 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 05 $99 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 05 $113 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 06 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 05 $98 +$2 +3%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 05 $159 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 27 $5 +$3 +69%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on March 8? Mar 11 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 25? Mar 06 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 06 $150 +$1 +0%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Feb 24 $253 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in January 2026? Feb 03 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Feb 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in January? Feb 03 $122 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Jan 04 $60 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $60 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 04 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Dec 09 $219 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 22 $116 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 22 $102 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Nov 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in November? Nov 10 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Nov 09 $116 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 08 $60 +$5 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 08 $151 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 29 $150 $0 +0%
Tigers vs. Mariners Oct 09 $69 +$81 +117%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? Oct 04 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Oct 04 $34 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Oct 03 $30 +$4 +12%
Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch? Sep 28 $30 +$2 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 25 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 03 $72 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 12 $11 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? Aug 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 in July? Aug 12 $40 $0 +0%
Elon no longer world's richest before July? Jul 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will China unban Bitcoin by June 30? Jul 11 $40 +$1 +2%
Trump announces large troop withdrawal from South Korea before July? Jul 11 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jul 11 $59 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Trump renames Persian Gulf to "Arabian Gulf" in May? Jun 06 $31 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 06 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Congo DR be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 92¢ $41 1h
Will Congo DR be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 92¢ $93 1h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Spain? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 98¢ $61 19d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $8 38d
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 38d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 40d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 40d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $113 79d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 50¢ $28 80d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 50¢ $5 81d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? BUY No 99¢ $50 82d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? BUY No 99¢ $99 82d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 46¢ $10 82d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 46¢ $20 82d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $14 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $8 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 91d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $159 107d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 98¢ $98 109d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on March 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 112d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $45 122d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $59 122d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $150 122d
Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in January 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 149d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in January? BUY No 100¢ $122 149d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $100 149d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 29-January 4? BUY No 100¢ $100 173d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.88 · official $292.88 (match) · 459 history records