Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d53…2856 crypto 642 markets active 5h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (228 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$416 (+2%) realized +$416 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate55%379W / 312L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day228.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$143
14 days−$90
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (228 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 361 -4.7% -13.8% 51% 2% -10.8%
≤30d 691 +2.4% -7.4% 55% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 691 +2.4% -7.4% 55% 3% -9.8%
all 691 +2.4% -7.4% 55% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover228.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 3% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 2% -18.5%
15% -24.3% 1% -26.3%
20% -31.7% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$416
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses379 / 312
Open positions0
Markets (closed)691 / 642
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day228.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 691 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -345%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +8954%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $17 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $17 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $7 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records