Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d5a…7028 other 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$223 (-34%) realized −$178 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days−$72
14 days−$157
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$178
sports 13% $0
world 4% −$24
crypto 2% $0
politics 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -46.4% -51.5% 21% 21% -52.4%
≤30d 34 -28.7% -35.5% 24% 24% -40.3%
≤90d 34 -28.7% -35.5% 24% 24% -40.3%
all 34 -28.7% -35.5% 24% 24% -40.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.5% 24% -40.3%
10% -41.7% 24% -46.0%
15% -47.3% 24% -51.2%
20% -52.5% 21% -56.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$14 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$178
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 26
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)34 / 45
History coverage66d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-44%)
Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-59%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 24¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 32¢ 14¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $11 +$31 +292%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $11 +$12 +110%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $11 +$5 +49%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $9 +$11 +132%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 +$26 +310%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 +$19 +220%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$7 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $9 −$8 -95%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 +$19 +90%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 +$90 +422%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 21m
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 23m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 24m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 25m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $11 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 45¢ $22 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 6d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 202 BUY Yes 24¢ $21 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 42¢ $20 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 7d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 7d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $27 7d
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 8d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 8d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 8d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.91 · official $114.32 (match) · 84 history records