Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5D 0x5d5c…cf59 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate89%8W / 1L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$768per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$9,052now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$135
other 46% −$59
tech 0% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 6 -16.0% -24.0% 83% 0% -8.7%
all 9 -7.0% -15.8% 89% 11% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 11% -8.4%
10% -23.9% 11% -17.2%
15% -31.3% 0% -25.2%
20% -38.0% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.38 per $1 lost it wins $7.38
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$9,052
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)9 / 20
History coverage236d
Avg bet$768
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $6,664 $6,623 −$42 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,095 $1,124 +$29 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $948 $990 +$42 (+4%)
Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $188 $187 −$1 (-0%)
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 70¢ $105 $88 −$17 (-16%)
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 01 $2,991 +$11 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 01 $1,500 +$39 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 06 $20 +$5 +25%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 01 $612 +$19 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Oct 30 $10 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $88 1h
Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $101 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? SELL No 100¢ $25 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $10 4d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY No 100¢ $25 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $988 5d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $3,992 6d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $61 6d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $249 6d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $3 7d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $339 7d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $234 7d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $630 7d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $160 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $54 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $791 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $88 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $89 17d
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $106 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $6 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,051.80 · official $9,051.80 (match) · 53 history records