Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5D 0x5d5c…d8d1 world 85 markets active 15h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate43%36W / 48L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$22
other 13% +$1
politics 10% +$1
finance 2% −$19
sports 0% +$3
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 26 -0.4% -9.9% 42% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 33 -0.9% -10.4% 42% 0% -9.8%
all 84 +0.3% -9.3% 43% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.8%
10% -18.0% 1% -18.4%
15% -25.9% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses36 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage482d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 90¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $134 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $132 +$2 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $119 +$2 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $134 −$3 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $121 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $163 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $222 −$3 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $137 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $127 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $394 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $127 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $125 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $307 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $265 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $127 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $133 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $139 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $244 +$6 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $120 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $172 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $205 −$19 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $145 −$12 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $146 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $6 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $921 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $969 −$4 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $966 +$3 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 13 $1,062 +$1 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 12 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 12 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 12 $1,064 +$1 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $48 −$10 -20%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Dec 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 20 $9 $0 +5%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 17 $9 $0 +4%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $9 $0 +1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 10 $18 $0 -1%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $8 $0 -3%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 09 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $8 $0 -1%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 07 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $134 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $134 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $134 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 94¢ $132 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $120 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $27 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $91 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $131 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $134 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $121 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $121 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $38 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $121 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $122 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $126 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $125 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $137 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $137 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $18 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $13 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $9 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $85 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $107 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $18 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $125 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $127 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $127 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.00 (match) · 262 history records