Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:05:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5D 0x5d5d…6be6 other 344 markets active 2d ago coverage 477d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Covers last 477d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,161 (+2%) realized +$5,174 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate66%226W / 116L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$901per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$698now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$7,619
crypto 23% +$62
world 9% +$135
finance 5% +$1,534
politics 4% −$3,660
economics 3% −$163
tech 0% −$131
sports 0% +$13
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +16.3% +5.2% 100% 50% +4.4%
≤30d 26 +2.0% -7.7% 65% 38% -9.9%
≤90d 70 +10.8% +0.2% 73% 39% -4.0%
all 342 +4.7% -5.2% 66% 29% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 29% -12.4%
10% -14.3% 18% -20.8%
15% -22.6% 12% -28.4%
20% -30.2% 9% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$1,070) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$279 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$698
Realized+$5,174
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses226 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)342 / 344
History coverage477d ⚠
Avg bet$901
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 89¢ $551 $534 −$17 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $160 $164 +$4 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 25 $268 +$21 +8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Jun 23 $991 +$97 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 23 $542 +$151 +28%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 23 $157 +$31 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 20 $109 +$34 +31%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $133 +$68 +51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,070 +$201 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $693 +$126 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 15 $110 +$6 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $711 −$455 -64%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 −$30 -53%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $48 +$52 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $178 −$111 -62%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 13 $431 +$31 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $246 −$245 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $191 +$198 +104%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 06 $47 +$43 +92%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $685 −$31 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 02 $455 −$19 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $289 +$102 +35%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 01 $78 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 01 $52 +$4 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $178 +$7 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $2,002 −$180 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 28 $121 +$8 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June? May 28 $100 +$5 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,756 +$228 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 25 $1,403 +$355 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 25 $492 +$24 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $66 +$22 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $1,637 +$69 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 22 $122 +$78 +64%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 20 $923 +$55 +6%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 19 $8 −$2 -26%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,552 −$680 -44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 15 $797 −$17 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 15 $376 +$46 +12%
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? May 15 $135 −$91 -67%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 13 $223 +$69 +31%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 13 $178 +$17 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 12 $359 −$54 -15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $245 +$9 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $106 +$5 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 09 $431 −$21 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 08 $33 +$25 +76%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 08 $128 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 06 $1,333 +$461 +35%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 03 $54 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $12 40h
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $13 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $103 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $164 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $7 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $463 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? SELL No 99¢ $739 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? SELL No 98¢ $693 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? SELL No 99¢ $188 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? SELL No 99¢ $349 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 67¢ $138 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 7d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $0 9d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $1 9d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $32 9d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $167 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 50¢ $109 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 90¢ $518 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $116 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $256 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $136 12d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 13d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $50 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $698.11 · official $698.11 (match) · 3500 history records