Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5D 0x5d5e…9a5e politics 752 markets active 4h ago coverage 76d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,216 (+3%) realized +$6,181 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate96%705W / 32L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day35.3pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$5,066now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% +$864
other 26% −$953
sports 8% +$610
finance 6% +$1,829
tech 6% −$356
world 3% +$344
economics 1% +$90
crypto 0% −$22
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +13.0% +2.2% 100% 100% +2.2%
≤30d 354 +2.3% -7.5% 95% 6% -6.9%
≤90d 737 +5.6% -4.5% 96% 7% -8.6%
all 737 +5.6% -4.5% 96% 7% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 7% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 4% -17.4%
15% -22.0% 2% -25.3%
20% -29.6% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$359 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$5,066
Realized+$6,181
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses705 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions29
Markets (closed)737 / 752
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$319
Trades / day35.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 737 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 80¢ $711 $858 +$147 (+21%)
LA Mayoral Election: Recount of 1st Round? No 96¢ 99¢ $480 $497 +$18 (+4%)
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? No 87¢ 100¢ $407 $466 +$59 (+15%)
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? No 84¢ 87¢ $410 $426 +$16 (+4%)
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? No 89¢ 99¢ $309 $343 +$34 (+11%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? No 68¢ 54¢ $356 $282 −$75 (-21%)
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 95¢ 99¢ $251 $263 +$11 (+4%)
McDonald's CEO out by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $184 $207 +$22 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 77¢ $183 $198 +$15 (+8%)
Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026? No 83¢ 74¢ $216 $191 −$25 (-12%)
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $156 $170 +$14 (+9%)
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? No 44¢ 99¢ $67 $152 +$85 (+126%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $130 $115 −$15 (-11%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $133 $99 −$34 (-25%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $86 $95 +$9 (+11%)
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 92¢ $81 $89 +$8 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spencer Pratt call for 1st round recount? No 84¢ 69¢ $96 $79 −$16 (-17%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 21¢ $82 $64 −$18 (-22%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $130 $55 −$74 (-57%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 28¢ $70 $51 −$19 (-27%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $118 $47 −$71 (-60%)
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election? No 90¢ 99¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $49 $33 −$16 (-32%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 77¢ 97¢ $23 $29 +$6 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 24 $196 +$25 +13%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 19 $236 −$227 -96%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 19 $336 −$322 -96%
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? Jun 19 $175 $0 -0%
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? Jun 18 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say “Thank You” 5+ times during UFC 250? Jun 18 $142 +$2 +1%
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca Jun 17 $14 +$86 +614%
Will "Doctor Banner" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $1,342 +$21 +2%
Will "UFC" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will "World Cup" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? Jun 17 $109 −$22 -21%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 17 $154 +$3 +2%
Will Algeria go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 17 $44 +$6 +15%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 17 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Trump say "Star" this week? Jun 17 $992 +$116 +12%
Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $245 +$3 +1%
Will Trump say "Strong" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $72 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Washington" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $146 +$4 +2%
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF Jun 16 $117 +$1 +1%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 16 $155 +$35 +22%
Will Trump say "World" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be 1+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Trump say "Generation" this week? Jun 16 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Warrior" this week? Jun 16 $23 $0 +2%
Will Trump post "Ted" or "Cruz" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump post "Ballroom" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $187 +$3 +2%
Will Trump post "CIA" or "C.I.A." on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $119 +$2 +2%
Will Trump post "NATO" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $205 +$30 +15%
Will Trump post "Russia" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $143 +$2 +2%
Will Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $30 $0 +2%
Will Trump post "Uranium" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Trump post "China" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Trump post "Scam" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Trump post "Spencer" or "Pratt" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Trump post "Cuba" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Trump post "Wall Street" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Trump post "Sleepy Joe Biden" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Trump post "Football" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Trump post "Soccer" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $52 +$2 +4%
Will Trump post "The Pope" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $34 +$1 +3%
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $133 +$2 +1%
Will anyone say "Dimensional" or "Interdimensional" during Rick and Mo Jun 15 $90 +$1 +1%
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $1,050 +$17 +2%
Will Trump post "CBS" on Truth Social this week? Jun 14 $377 +$7 +2%
Will Tiago Splitter attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? Jun 14 $76 +$2 +2%
Will Matt Bonner attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? Jun 14 $117 +$1 +1%
Will Manu Ginobili attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? Jun 14 $135 +$3 +2%
Will Jaxson Dart attend Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $157 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? BUY No 86¢ $19 4h
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? BUY No 86¢ $22 40h
LA Mayoral Election: Recount of 1st Round? BUY No 97¢ $103 4d
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? BUY No 90¢ $45 8d
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? BUY No 91¢ $46 8d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY No 24¢ $123 8d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY No 24¢ $1 8d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY No 40¢ $8 8d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY No 45¢ $17 8d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY No 25¢ $5 8d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY No 25¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY No 23¢ $64 8d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY Yes 20¢ $161 8d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY No 14¢ $16 8d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY Yes 2¢ $152 8d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY Yes 2¢ $23 8d
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? BUY No 90¢ $64 8d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY No 88¢ $196 8d
Will Spencer Pratt call for 1st round recount? BUY No 86¢ $43 8d
LA Mayoral Election: Recount of 1st Round? BUY No 97¢ $91 8d
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? SELL No 98¢ $175 8d
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? BUY No 89¢ $116 8d
Will "UFC" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca BUY Yes 12¢ $12 10d
Will "Doctor Banner" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,342 10d
Will "World Cup" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand BUY Yes 11¢ $11 10d
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca BUY Yes 14¢ $14 10d
LA Mayoral Election: Recount of 1st Round? BUY No 96¢ $96 10d
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 10d
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 10d
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,065.87 · official $5,065.90 (match) · 3500 history records