Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:15:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d5e…7769 crypto 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$37 (-6%) realized −$38 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate82%102W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day138.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$38
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$26
sports 10% −$16
other 2% −$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -3.9% -13.0% 82% 17% -15.2%
≤30d 125 -3.9% -13.0% 82% 17% -15.2%
≤90d 125 -3.9% -13.0% 82% 17% -15.2%
all 125 -3.9% -13.0% 82% 17% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover138.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 17% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 10% -23.3%
15% -29.0% 3% -30.7%
20% -35.9% 1% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses102 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)125 / 134
History coverage3d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day138.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan Katerina Siniakova 84¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 74¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? No 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? No 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 78¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? No 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 30¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? No 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $8 +$4 +48%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $7 −$1 -16%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$3 -37%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 -2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 74¢ $1 12m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 51¢ $1 12m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $1 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 20m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 46m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 84¢ $1 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 50m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 50m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 51m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 56m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 56m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 56m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 56m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 56m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 30¢ $6 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 29¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $3 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $2 3h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 96¢ $10 4h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $7 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.93 · official $9.85 (match) · 547 history records