Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:04:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5D 0x5d5f…6b9c sports 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,409 (+15%) realized +$1,466 · open −$57
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%5W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$202est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1,728
crypto 4% −$384
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 19% +6.8%
≤30d 27 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 19% +6.8%
≤90d 27 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 19% +6.8%
all 27 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 19% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 19% +6.8%
10% -18.2% 19% -3.4%
15% -26.1% 19% -12.7%
20% -33.4% 19% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late +68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,490 vs −$275 · ×5.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1,275
Realized+$1,466
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses5 / 22
Est. fees paid−$202
Open positions4
Markets (closed)27 / 32
History coverage7d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $333 $327 −$6 (-2%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $333 $326 −$7 (-2%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes $333 $312 −$21 (-6%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $333 $310 −$23 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $341 +$1,107 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $341 +$1,245 +365%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $341 −$333 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $342 +$3,358 +982%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $340 −$339 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $99 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $340 +$940 +276%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 18 $342 −$333 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 18 $341 −$333 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 18 $341 −$333 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $340 −$333 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $342 −$333 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 18 $340 −$333 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $341 −$333 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $340 −$333 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $341 −$333 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $341 −$333 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $341 −$333 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $338 −$333 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $341 −$333 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $342 −$333 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $341 −$333 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $321 +$802 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $341 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $340 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $342 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $341 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $341 18h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 45h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $93 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down $106 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $341 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $341 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $340 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $342 4d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $341 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $342 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $341 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $340 4d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $342 4d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $340 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $341 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $340 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $341 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $341 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $340 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $341 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $338 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $91 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,275.30 · official $1,275.30 (match) · 41 history records