Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5D 0x5d5f…55a8 other 99 markets active 3h ago coverage 102d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$61 (+0%) realized −$457 · open +$518
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%68W / 33L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,986per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$5,591now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 102d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$19,211
crypto 30% −$6,683
finance 2% +$38
world 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -34.4% -40.7% 65% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 37 -15.8% -23.8% 78% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 89 -20.5% -28.1% 72% 0% -18.1%
all 101 -26.0% -33.0% 67% 0% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.0% 0% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -39.5% 0% -25.6%
15% -45.3% 0% -32.8%
20% -50.7% 0% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$4,955) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -39% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$851 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$5,591
Realized−$457
Unrealized+$518
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses68 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions32
Markets (closed)101 / 99
History coverage102d
Avg bet$2,986
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,565 $4,567 +$3 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 23¢ $17 $233 +$216 (+1277%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 21¢ $17 $212 +$195 (+1151%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $17 $112 +$95 (+563%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $17 $104 +$87 (+515%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $17 $61 +$45 (+263%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $17 $57 +$40 (+239%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $17 $51 +$34 (+203%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $17 $40 +$23 (+137%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $17 $27 +$10 (+59%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $24 +$7 (+41%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-25%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-31%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $10 −$7 (-43%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $6 −$11 (-67%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $5 −$12 (-73%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $3 −$14 (-85%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $3 −$14 (-85%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-91%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-91%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-91%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 28 $2,672 +$12 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $3,452 +$13 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $1,277 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5,513 +$75 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $1,688 +$91 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $9,634 +$71 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $5,637 +$16 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $5,504 +$59 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 24 $5,002 +$25 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5,303 +$63 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5,301 +$12 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $5,290 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5,000 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5,001 +$14 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5,100 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,501 +$26 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,800 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2,502 +$23 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2,700 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5,346 +$25 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $4,925 +$75 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $5,012 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2,347 +$39 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2,890 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,263 +$15 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $4,962 +$188 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $4,312 +$361 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $4,501 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $5,581 −$999 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $5,645 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $5,651 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $5,636 +$17 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $5,501 +$21 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 26 $4,995 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 26 $570 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 26 $4,955 +$45 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 26 $7,700 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $5,605 −$5,605 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 25 $3,500 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24? May 24 $3,300 +$3 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $200 +$15 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23? May 23 $3,500 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,201 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $946 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,150 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,237 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,245 16h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,438 16h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,580 26h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,091 31h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,877 41h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 41h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 41h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 41h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 41h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 41h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 41h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 41h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 41h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,590.67 · official $5,590.67 (match) · 1023 history records