Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d5f…a934 crypto 673 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1184 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,542 (+22%) realized +$4,542 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%334W / 339L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1184.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1184 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 607 -3.1% -12.4% 50% 43% -8.4%
≤30d 673 -1.8% -11.2% 50% 43% -8.8%
≤90d 673 -1.8% -11.2% 50% 43% -8.8%
all 673 -1.8% -11.2% 50% 43% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1184.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 43% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 34% -17.5%
15% -27.4% 27% -25.5%
20% -34.5% 23% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,542
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses334 / 339
Open positions0
Markets (closed)673 / 673
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1184.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 673 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $37 +$23 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$8 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $34 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$13 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$11 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$17 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $34 +$26 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $34 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$19 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $60 −$30 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$16 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $93 −$33 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$19 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $72 +$21 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$14 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $38 −$8 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $22 +$11 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$16 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$15 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $61 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $35 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $45 +$15 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$12 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$11 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $88 +$17 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$19 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$15 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$11 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records