Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:21:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5D 0x5d60…50db sports 727 markets active 2h ago coverage 425d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$941 (-3%) realized −$948 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%417W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$41
14 days+$90
30 days−$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$480
other 31% −$617
crypto 2% +$84
economics 0% +$7
world 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +15.6% +4.6% 67% 67% +10.5%
≤30d 38 -0.0% -9.5% 55% 55% -28.3%
≤90d 86 +3.9% -6.0% 59% 58% -11.5%
all 726 -3.4% -12.6% 57% 52% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 52% -12.5%
10% -21.0% 46% -20.9%
15% -28.6% 40% -28.5%
20% -35.6% 34% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$22 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

425d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$948
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses417 / 309
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)726 / 727
History coverage425d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 726 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 88¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 271 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $15 +$11 +73%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$17 +111%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 +$7 +49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 +$11 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$18 +70%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 +$11 +73%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $15 +$12 +76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $79 +$44 +56%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 +$19 +250%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 +$11 +70%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$11 +44%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $25 −$25 -99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 31 $224 −$224 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $15 +$14 +93%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $8 −$4 -51%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 +$44 +86%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $75 −$75 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $40 +$10 +24%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner May 30 $50 +$9 +18%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 28 $102 −$36 -35%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $15 +$13 +83%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 27 $15 +$14 +91%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $267 +$29 +11%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner May 27 $20 +$13 +65%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 26 $10 +$13 +124%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 26 $25 +$10 +40%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 26 $25 +$12 +46%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 25 $15 +$10 +65%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 24 $8 +$13 +165%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $15 +$10 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 55¢ $15 45h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 40¢ $10 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $20 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $15 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 5d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 89¢ $23 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 58¢ $8 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $5 5d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 59¢ $15 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $15 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $15 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 6d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $15 7d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $15 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 8d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $10 9d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 47¢ $20 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 78¢ $123 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $79 11d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $20 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 12d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 62¢ $20 13d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $15 14d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 14d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 45¢ $10 14d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 61¢ $15 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.61 · official $31.61 (match) · 1290 history records