Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:38:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5D
0x5d63…2cbf
sports · 522 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$13,786 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17,264 · open −$103
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,216
Realized+$17,264
Unrealized−$103
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses290 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$752
Open positions31
Markets (closed)454 / 522
History coverage123d
Avg bet$473
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 31 History 454 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,795
7 days+$3,086
14 days+$472
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1,600 $1,645 +$45 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1,600 $1,645 +$45 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,116 $965 −$151 (-14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $840 $675 −$165 (-20%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $450 $452 +$2 (+1%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 75¢ 74¢ $375 $368 −$8 (-2%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 70¢ $325 $352 +$28 (+8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? No 50¢ 66¢ $250 $328 +$78 (+31%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $270 $308 +$38 (+14%)
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch Yes 60¢ 52¢ $300 $260 −$40 (-13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $200 $252 +$52 (+26%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $225 $207 −$17 (-8%)
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $150 $159 +$9 (+6%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 46¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 15¢ 16¢ $84 $90 +$6 (+7%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 42¢ $106 $85 −$21 (-20%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 4¢ 9¢ $23 $43 +$20 (+90%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $25 $41 +$15 (+60%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Over 20¢ 20¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Over 45¢ 34¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-23%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Over 30¢ 21¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $31 +$2 (+5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $402 +$92 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +10%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $250 +$250 +100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $65 +$459 +703%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $408 +$703 +172%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $150 +$350 +233%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $120 +$880 +733%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 13 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$1 +7%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $51 +$322 +627%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $32 −$31 -98%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $32 +$1 +2%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $300 +$200 +67%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Bublik/Kyrgios vs Paul/Seggerman Jun 11 $875 +$258 +30%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$15 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $724 −$391 -54%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $345 −$20 -6%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +34%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $254 +$246 +97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $201 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$7 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $200 +$5 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $240 +$160 +67%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $265 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$4 +14%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$10 +47%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $50 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $212 +$37 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 33% +$12,576
sports 28% +$3,233
world 13% −$529
finance 10% +$312
politics 9% $0
crypto 7% +$502
economics 0% +$1,005
tech 0% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 81¢ $402 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 8h
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY 9¢ $100 8h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: U BUY 2¢ $97 8h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) AND Will United BUY 2¢ $51 9h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Wil BUY 1¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 12h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 50¢ $148 12h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 50¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 14h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 50¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +30.1% +17.7% 63% 41% +29.1%
≤30d 188 +6.2% -4.0% 60% 35% -9.6%
≤90d 325 +8.5% -1.8% 62% 31% -1.5%
all 454 +3.2% -6.6% 64% 29% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 29% -2.9%
10% -15.6% 22% -12.2%
15% ← realistic here -23.7% 18% -20.7%
20% -31.2% 16% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,216.38 · official $8,586.38 · 3500 history records