Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d63…0608 crypto 198 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%189W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$7
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$7
other 3% −$3
finance 3% +$1
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 56 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.3%
≤90d 198 -0.3% -9.8% 95% 2% -9.3%
all 198 -0.3% -9.8% 95% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 2% -9.3%
10% -18.4% 2% -18.0%
15% -26.3% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses189 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)198 / 198
History coverage233d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 198 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 1PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 02 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Chainlink dip to $8 in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 31 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 30 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 6PM ET May 29 $10 $0 +4%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 29 $15 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on May 28? May 29 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 29 $13 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 29 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET May 28 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - May 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 28 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $15 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $15 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 93¢ $15 4d
Will Solana reach $70 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 5d
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 97¢ $10 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $10 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 8d
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 1PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 13d
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 13d
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.00 (match) · 1716 history records