Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5D 0x5d66…25e0 crypto 1740 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,175 (+1%) realized +$2,175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate95%1646W / 94L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 83d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,741
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -9.8% -18.4% 85% 3% -18.3%
≤30d 440 -3.5% -12.7% 91% 9% -12.8%
≤90d 1740 -1.1% -10.5% 95% 8% -10.2%
all 1740 -1.1% -10.5% 95% 8% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 8% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$194 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1646 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1740 / 1740
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$227
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1740 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $37 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $37 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $37 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $36 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $37 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $36 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $35 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $36 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $36 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $36 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $37 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $36 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $36 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $36 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $35 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $36 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $35 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $36 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $35 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $35 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $37 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $35 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $37 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $35 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $35 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $36 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $35 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $36 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records