Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:09:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5D
0x5d67…eb9c
world · 69 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$34 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$34 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses15 / 53
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage274d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 1 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$9
14 days−$4
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $117 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $145 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $148 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $102 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $291 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $164 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $149 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $94 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $154 −$6 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $185 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $133 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $200 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $145 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $104 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $414 +$4 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $118 +$1 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $69 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $108 +$4 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $193 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $4 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $77 −$2 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 26 $95 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $206 −$3 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $102 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $9 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $83 +$68 +82%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $92 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $103 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $102 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 19 $93 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $94 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $94 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $45 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $94 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $77 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $679 −$4 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $165 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $38 +$3 +7%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $45 −$27 -60%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $71 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $144 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $49 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 61% +$61
other 24% −$28
sports 14% +$1
politics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $117 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $117 2h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 11h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $64 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $19 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $40 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $4 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $23 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $96 23h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $17 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $25 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $103 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $76 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $69 32h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $77 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $148 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $33 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $67 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $63 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $34 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $164 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $164 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.4% -9.2% 17% 8% -10.0%
≤30d 35 +2.3% -7.4% 26% 6% -8.3%
≤90d 42 +2.1% -7.6% 29% 5% -8.6%
all 68 +0.9% -8.7% 22% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 4% -9.1%
10% -17.4% 3% -17.8%
15% -25.4% 1% -25.7%
20% -32.7% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.00 (match) · 467 history records