Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:58:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d68…9ff7 crypto 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,460 (+2%) realized +$3,460 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%56W / 89L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$1,082per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1,731est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,160
7 days+$1,639
14 days+$6,719
30 days+$3,081
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$5,326
other 43% −$940
crypto 5% −$1,619
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -16.1% -24.1% 47% 40% +3.8%
≤30d 140 -13.2% -21.5% 40% 34% -7.6%
≤90d 145 -16.0% -24.0% 39% 33% -7.7%
all 145 -16.0% -24.0% 39% 33% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 33% -7.7%
10% -31.3% 32% -16.6%
15% -37.9% 27% -24.6%
20% -44.0% 23% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,020) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,272 vs −$769 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,460
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses56 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$1,731
Open positions0
Markets (closed)145 / 145
History coverage48d
Avg bet$1,082
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 145 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3,208 +$267 +8%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,825 +$385 +21%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $4,415 +$1,254 +28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,513 +$291 +19%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor Jun 26 $315 −$67 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$65 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$65 +63%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $192 −$189 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $499 −$292 -59%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $152 −$4 -3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $438 +$218 +50%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $516 −$80 -16%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $43 −$23 -55%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $20,516 −$20,000 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,044 −$2,000 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $7,646 +$24,813 +324%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,730 +$5,948 +344%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12,944 −$10,517 -81%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,522 +$1,416 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,022 +$2,546 +249%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,006 +$200 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6,466 +$3,674 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,001 −$1,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4,127 +$4,693 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,184 +$2,951 +249%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $808 +$400 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$71 -68%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $4,902 −$4,789 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $102 +$50 +49%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $102 −$49 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $105 −$102 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $37 +$43 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $1,021 −$147 -14%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès vs. AS FAR end in a draw? Jun 10 $1,304 +$788 +60%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $1,503 −$1,473 -98%
Will Liberia vs. Sierra Leone end in a draw? Jun 09 $513 −$426 -83%
Will Togo vs. Benin end in a draw? Jun 09 $1,523 −$1,500 -98%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 09 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $1,020 +$1,918 +188%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $1,021 +$2,359 +231%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,475 37m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 92¢ $3,208 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,210 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 73¢ $267 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $804 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,039 21h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,611 22h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 63¢ $2,630 22h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,799 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 73¢ $1,805 22h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,513 25h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor SELL 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 50¢ $248 25h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 63¢ $315 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $168 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $168 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $192 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $190 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $499 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $153 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 56¢ $148 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $152 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $656 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $438 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 331 history records