Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:16:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d69…1ccf other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$207 (-10%) realized −$82 · open −$125
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%6W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$353
other 20% −$70
crypto 7% +$94
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -9.4% -18.0% 16% 16% -20.4%
≤30d 38 -9.4% -18.0% 16% 16% -20.4%
≤90d 38 -9.4% -18.0% 16% 16% -20.4%
all 38 -9.4% -18.0% 16% 16% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 16% -20.4%
10% -25.8% 16% -28.0%
15% -33.0% 16% -35.0%
20% -39.6% 16% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$42 · ×4.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$82
Unrealized−$125
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses6 / 32
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage5d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 26¢ $206 $78 −$128 (-62%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 10¢ 23¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+130%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $134 +$94 +70%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $21 +$113 +550%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $302 −$295 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $115 −$112 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $92 −$90 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $153 +$402 +262%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $5 +$38 +744%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$453 +442%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $100 −$97 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 +$40 +776%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $208 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $229 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $134 15h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $302 19h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 20h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $113 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 21h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 23h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $92 23h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 35h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 35h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 42h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 87¢ $43 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $555 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.55 · official $109.28 · 52 history records