Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:26:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5D 0x5d6a…10f8 crypto 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-10%) realized −$80 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$25
other 19% −$36
sports 12% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-53.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -50.6% -55.3% 40% 20% -59.1%
≤90d 6 -48.3% -53.2% 33% 17% -49.6%
all 6 -48.3% -53.2% 33% 17% -49.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.2% 17% -49.6%
10% -57.7% 0% -54.4%
15% -61.8% 0% -58.8%
20% -65.5% 0% -62.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$20 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage94d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $329 $358 +$29 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$9 -84%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 23 $99 −$36 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $339 1h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 8d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 8d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 8d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 59¢ $25 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $20 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 9d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $63 89d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $49 89d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $50 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.25 · official $358.25 (match) · 12 history records