Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5D
0x5d6f…0e20
weather · 777 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$1,138 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$662 · open +$476
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$752
Realized+$662
Unrealized+$476
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses441 / 328
Open positions8
Markets (closed)769 / 777
History coverage60d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day46.4
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 8 History 769 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$502
7 days−$513
14 days−$75
30 days+$875
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Yes 5¢ 100¢ $32 $635 +$603 (+1899%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? No 68¢ 74¢ $38 $42 +$4 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? No 70¢ 74¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 11? No 57¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 6? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April 29? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 14? No 88¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 9? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 2? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 14? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 2? No 47¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on May 30? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 31? No 68¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 9? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 13? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $32 +$36 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $78 −$78 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$6 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $36 +$45 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $23 +$24 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $23 +$261 +1133%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$13 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $41 +$9 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $48 −$46 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $43 +$137 +316%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $41 +$167 +405%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 −$13 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $46 −$46 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 10 $19 +$31 +166%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $26 +$45 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $23 +$17 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $13 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $42 −$41 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $47 +$46 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $69 +$31 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 +$41 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $39 −$38 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 08 $25 +$8 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 8? Jun 07 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 8? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $62 +$109 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $37 +$33 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 07 $56 −$55 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 07 $15 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $36 −$35 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $62 −$60 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $148 +$102 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $47 +$58 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 06 $32 −$32 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 06 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $52 −$51 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 06 $40 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$1,138
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $24 31m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $3 44m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $1 50m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 68¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 68¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 68¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 68¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 13h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $28 13h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +16.5% +5.4% 48% 47% -25.2%
≤30d 369 +10.4% -0.1% 54% 48% -5.0%
≤90d 769 +4.1% -5.8% 57% 46% -7.1%
all 769 +4.1% -5.8% 57% 46% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 46% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 37% -16.0%
15% -23.0% 31% -24.1%
20% -30.6% 27% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $751.52 · official $751.53 (match) · 3203 history records