Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:05:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5D 0x5d6f…4997 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,018 (+51%) realized +$1,032 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%4W / 13L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$505
world 5% −$103
sports 5% $0
crypto 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +12.6% +1.9% 24% 24% +13.6%
≤30d 17 +12.6% +1.9% 24% 24% +13.6%
≤90d 17 +12.6% +1.9% 24% 24% +13.6%
all 17 +12.6% +1.9% 24% 24% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 24% +13.6%
10% -7.9% 24% +2.7%
15% -16.8% 24% -7.2%
20% -24.9% 24% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$352 vs −$79 · ×4.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized+$1,032
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses4 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)17 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $64 $61 −$3 (-5%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Egypt? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $508 −$508 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $204 +$337 +165%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $102 +$398 +388%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $103 +$196 +190%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$8 -41%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $67 +$478 +712%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $65 42m
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 43m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 54m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY 14¢ $51 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $305 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Ve BUY 23¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 7h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 19h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 19h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 19h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 51¢ $299 19h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 20h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 21h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 21h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 27h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 29h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 29h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 29h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $67 40h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.62 · official $349.62 (match) · 36 history records