Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:53:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d71…d4e5 crypto 446 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate78%348W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$7
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$5
politics 16% −$2
other 12% $0
sports 11% −$13
world 7% +$14
economics 1% −$2
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +9.0% -1.4% 62% 54% -2.0%
≤30d 65 -1.1% -10.5% 82% 18% -10.1%
≤90d 262 -0.2% -9.7% 83% 5% -9.6%
all 444 -0.7% -10.2% 78% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 3% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses348 / 96
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)444 / 446
History coverage140d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 444 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 70¢ 70¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 76¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $10 +$14 +137%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 13 $6 +$2 +34%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 11 $6 +$3 +52%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $15 −$9 -60%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 09 $9 +$4 +40%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $4 +$7 +197%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $6 +$3 +56%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 07 $9 +$5 +52%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $10 +$8 +79%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $5 +$5 +101%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$8 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9PM ET Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 01 $15 $0 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Jun 01 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5PM ET May 31 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12PM ET May 31 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11PM ET May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET May 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET May 29 $11 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $12 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1AM ET May 29 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11PM ET May 29 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12PM ET May 28 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3AM ET May 28 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5PM ET May 27 $10 $0 +0%
CA Mineiro vs. Academia Puerto Cabello: O/U 5.5 May 27 $6 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET May 27 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET May 27 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11PM ET May 27 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3PM ET May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6PM ET May 24 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET May 23 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7AM ET May 22 $17 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $6 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 74¢ $6 32h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $5 32h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $6 37h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 3d
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) BUY Spurs 17¢ $2 4d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 65¢ $6 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 55¢ $8 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 59¢ $5 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 65¢ $5 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 86¢ $5 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $10 5d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) BUY Athletics 71¢ $9 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 33¢ $4 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 56¢ $9 6d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 43¢ $5 7d
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 66¢ $6 7d
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 65¢ $3 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $10 8d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 91¢ $6 9d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Spurs 34¢ $8 9d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ $8 10d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $5 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $5 10d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 55¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.83 · official $9.83 (match) · 1942 history records