Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:11:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5D 0x5d75…66c3 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$538 (+15%) realized +$538 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$1,372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$505
sports 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +4.6% -5.4% 70% 60% +13.8%
≤30d 10 +4.6% -5.4% 70% 60% +13.8%
≤90d 10 +4.6% -5.4% 70% 60% +13.8%
all 10 +4.6% -5.4% 70% 60% +13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 60% +13.8%
10% -14.4% 50% +2.9%
15% -22.7% 50% -7.0%
20% -30.3% 30% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$100 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,372
Realized+$538
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)10 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $295 $301 +$6 (+2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $294 $297 +$2 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $196 $197 +$2 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $197 $196 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $195 $190 −$6 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $97 $96 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $200 +$106 +53%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $317 +$154 +49%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $486 −$288 -59%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $245 +$41 +17%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $288 +$153 +53%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $200 +$243 +122%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $200 +$17 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $200 +$88 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $100 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $100 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 11h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 17h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $188 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $286 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $286 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $45 24h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $100 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $100 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $200 30h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 34h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $200 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $200 34h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $200 35h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $200 35h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $217 36h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $200 36h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $200 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $100 41h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $288 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $200 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $200 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $100 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,371.71 · official $1,371.71 (match) · 32 history records