Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d76…9168 sports 110 markets active 3h ago coverage 71d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$149,746 (+14%) realized +$149,926 · open −$180
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%47W / 63L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$9,391per market
Trades / day45.8pace
Fees−$7,455est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$810now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$11,729
other 26% +$71,417
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -65.5% -68.8% 12% 10% -4.1%
≤30d 80 -1.2% -10.6% 34% 26% -3.7%
≤90d 110 +4.0% -5.9% 43% 29% -4.3%
all 110 +4.0% -5.9% 43% 29% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 29% -4.3%
10% -14.9% 21% -13.5%
15% ← realistic here -23.1% 19% -21.8%
20% -30.7% 15% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$9,064) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +61% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
29.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,249 vs −$1,498 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$810
Realized+$149,926
Unrealized−$180
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses47 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$7,455
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$9,391
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $565 $527 −$37 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $425 $282 −$142 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $50,390 −$5,390 -11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50,000 $0 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $34,816 +$14,778 +42%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Elina Svitolina Jun 24 $1,551 +$949 +61%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski Jun 24 $366 +$711 +194%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 24 $1,360 −$1,360 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 24 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $12,400 −$12,400 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $14,306 +$71,320 +498%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $16,156 −$1,157 -7%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $19,476 −$5,197 -27%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Iga Swiatek Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Oeiras 4: Polina Kudermetova vs Whitney Osuigwe Jun 23 $79 −$79 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Madison Keys Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 23 $289 −$289 -100%
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 23 $127 −$127 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 23 $327 −$327 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic Jun 23 $96 −$96 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 23 $690 −$690 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $791 −$791 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Liudmila Samsonova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 23 $540 −$540 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 23 $964 −$964 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-16? Jun 23 $760 −$760 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Jun 23 $660 −$660 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Simona Waltert vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 23 $1,155 −$1,155 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 23 $1,025 −$1,025 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys Jun 23 $1,456 −$1,456 -100%
Pakistan Super League: Rawalpindi Pindiz vs Islamabad United Jun 23 $1,901 −$1,901 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 23 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka Jun 23 $1,380 −$1,380 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 23 $870 −$870 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 23 $840 −$840 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 23 $1,590 −$1,590 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce Jun 23 $1,170 −$1,170 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 23 $44 −$44 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 23 $735 −$735 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,820 −$1,820 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 23 $1,820 −$1,820 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar Jun 23 $400 −$400 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 23 $1,850 −$1,850 -100%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud Jun 23 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Madrid Open: Laura Samson vs Anna Bondar Jun 23 $4,357 −$4,357 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik Jun 23 $7,305 −$7,305 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 23 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $8,150 −$3,150 -39%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $3,256 +$436 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $4,218 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $48 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $15 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $8 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $38 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $4 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $8 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $52 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $15 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $29 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $36 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $7 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $125 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $69 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $8 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $19 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $152 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $743 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $148 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $4 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $170 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $3 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $2 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $199 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $37 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $4 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $15 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $10 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $810.00 · official $810.00 (match) · 3500 history records