Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:14:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5D 0x5d77…6bd8 crypto 276 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$499 (+4%) realized +$560 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate48%102W / 110L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$25
14 days−$151
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$21
culture 22% −$3
other 12% −$768
sports 12% +$1,115
crypto 9% +$4
finance 1% −$33
tech 0% +$3
world 0% +$2
economics 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +19.7% +8.3% 45% 45% -30.9%
≤30d 107 +18.0% +6.8% 44% 39% -23.5%
≤90d 150 +10.0% -0.5% 39% 28% -18.6%
all 212 +5.0% -5.0% 48% 25% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 25% -7.3%
10% -14.1% 24% -16.2%
15% -22.4% 23% -24.3%
20% -30.0% 17% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$560
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses102 / 110
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions70
Markets (closed)212 / 276
History coverage240d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 70 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 50¢ 93¢ $32 $61 +$28 (+87%)
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 50¢ 7¢ $32 $4 −$28 (-87%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Bruce Walden win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Vasile Dîncu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+150%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-75%)
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Baidu have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+750%)
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Marco Rubio be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will Federico Valverde win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Dominic Fritz be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+200%)
Will Aaron Baker be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Capitão Wagner win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Alexandra Van Cleef be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+133%)
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 19? Jun 27 $2 −$5 -199%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 19? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 19? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 19? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 26 $16 +$8 +50%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Jun 26 $0 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 26 $2 $0 -0%
Will Michael Ford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Jun 26 $0 $0 +50%
Will Kevin Clarke win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Jun 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ana Bailão win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Jun 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Jun 25 $0 $0 +50%
Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 25 $2 $0 -4%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +61%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 Jun 25 $2 $0 +20%
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 24 $0 +$1 +250%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $0 $0 +50%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 24 $0 $0 +100%
Will Eduardo Girão win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Jun 24 $0 $0 +50%
Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 23 $4 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO Jun 23 $2 $0 -4%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +50%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 22 $8 +$3 +43%
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 22 $0 $0 +100%
Will Freecs win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 22 $0 $0 +50%
Will DRX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 22 $0 $0 +50%
Will Mugur Isărescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 22 $0 $0 +100%
Will Lucian Isar be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 22 $0 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? Jun 22 $0 $0 +156%
Will Microsoft have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con Jun 22 $0 $0 -54%
Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO da Jun 21 $0 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $0 $0 +0%
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +87%
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Jun 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? Jun 19 $5 $0 -4%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 18 $274 −$111 -40%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 19? Jun 18 $50 −$25 -50%
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +325%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee Jun 17 $2 −$1 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the June meet BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 7h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 12h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 16h
Will Michael Ford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will Anthony Furey win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Kevin Clarke win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Kevin Clarke win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Ana Bailão win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17h
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 30h
Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 30h
Will Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 30h
Will Vasile Dîncu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 30h
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.35 · official $121.36 (match) · 2501 history records