Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:57:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5D 0x5d78…7b8d sports 652 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$560 (-0%) realized −$984 · open +$424
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate72%513W / 196L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$465per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$903est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 105d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$468
other 6% +$776
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -81.4% -83.2% 15% 10% -56.0%
≤30d 194 -35.3% -41.5% 56% 32% -20.7%
≤90d 539 -14.5% -22.6% 72% 36% -12.3%
all 709 -12.7% -21.0% 72% 38% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 38% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.6% 16% -20.4%
15% -35.5% 8% -28.1%
20% -41.8% 5% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$581) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$221 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$2,341
Realized−$984
Unrealized+$424
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses513 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$903
Open positions2
Markets (closed)709 / 652
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$465
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 709 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Under 75¢ 93¢ $1,648 $2,042 +$394 (+24%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 90¢ 100¢ $270 $300 +$30 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 151 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5 Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Marist Red Foxes vs. Sacred Heart Pioneers: O/U 142.5 Jun 27 $106 −$106 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2026-01-09? Jun 27 $90 −$90 -100%
Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5 Jun 27 $166 −$166 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Bulls vs. Kings Jun 27 $2,489 −$2,489 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Jun 27 $269 −$269 -100%
Ducks vs. Hurricanes Jun 27 $99 −$99 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $174 −$174 -100%
Clippers vs. Pistons Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Cádiz CF vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $98 −$98 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 236.5 Jun 27 $249 −$249 -100%
SS Lazio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
SS Lazio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $77 −$77 -100%
Flyers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: BYU Cougars (-13.5) Jun 27 $86 −$86 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winne Jun 27 $111 −$111 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
FC Utrecht vs. PEC Zwolle: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Jets Jun 27 $88 −$88 -100%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $181 −$181 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-5.5) Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-7.5) Jun 27 $54 −$54 -100%
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5 Jun 27 $264 −$264 -100%
Saint Peter's Peacocks vs. Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers Jun 27 $108 −$108 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) Jun 27 $67 −$67 -100%
Spread: Capitals (-1.5) Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
CA Independiente vs. CA Unión: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Club Tijuana vs. Club Santos Laguna end in a draw? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $172 −$172 -100%
Udinese Calcio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $389 −$389 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-6.5) Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5 Jun 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-6.5) Jun 27 $5 −$226 -4517%
Kings vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $73 −$73 -100%
Valencia CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $372 −$372 -100%
Spread: Bulls (-3.5) Jun 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Gwangju FC vs. Incheon United FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-03? Jun 27 $430 −$430 -100%
SC Heerenveen vs. Sparta Rotterdam: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $157 −$157 -100%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-01-09? Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Gwangju FC vs. Incheon United FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $515 −$515 -100%
Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 Jun 27 $106 −$106 -100%
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $98 −$98 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $91 −$91 -100%
Cádiz CF vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $99 −$99 -100%
Pistons vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5 Jun 27 $106 −$106 -100%
Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5 Jun 27 $104 −$104 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-6.5) Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 66¢ $266 7m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 62¢ $59 8m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 8m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 63¢ $382 8m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 62¢ $126 8m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $894 9m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $273 9m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $64 10m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $109 10m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $192 10m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $184 10m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 89¢ $578 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $271 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $476 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $85 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $68 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $4 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $4 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $41 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $4 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $82 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $4 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $33 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 72¢ $218 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $37 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $28 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $228 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $7 3h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $336 3h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,341.45 · official $2,341.45 (match) · 3500 history records