Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:55:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5D 0x5d78…5278 world 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$725 (+130%) realized +$725 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +232% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +200% what you keep after slip
Net edge+200%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$16
other 25% +$740
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+200.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 5 +232.2% +200.5% 60% 20% +107.7%
≤90d 5 +232.2% +200.5% 60% 20% +107.7%
all 5 +232.2% +200.5% 60% 20% +107.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +200.5% 20% +107.7%
10% +171.8% 20% +87.8%
15% +145.5% 20% +69.7%
20% +121.5% 20% +53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +130% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +232% · $-wt +130% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$272 vs −$46 · ×5.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.87 per $1 lost it wins $8.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$725
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage13d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 25 $308 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $63 +$815 +1290%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 13 $57 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $56 −$17 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records