Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5D
0x5d78…bdaa
other · 30 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$11 -27%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses8 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage69d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 1 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will all of the Kardashian sisters attend the Met Gala? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? No 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? May 30 $1 +$1 +134%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Kanye blocked from entering another country by June 30? May 28 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will all of the Kardashian sisters attend the Met Gala? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's latest video get less than 63 million views on day 4? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 07 $1 $0 +34%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr Apr 07 $1 −$1 -95%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $2 +$2 +167%
ChatGPT Outage by April 10? Apr 07 $1 +$5 +504%
Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Apr 06 $1 $0 -41%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-05? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? Apr 05 $1 +$1 +92%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $1 +$2 +177%
Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 04 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 04 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 35% −$8
crypto 27% −$4
world 14% +$1
sports 12% −$4
finance 5% $0
politics 5% −$2
tech 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 13d
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 15d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Kanye blocked from entering another country by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 15d
Will all of the Kardashian sisters attend the Met Gala? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 63d
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $1 63d
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 63d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 63d
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1 65d
Kanye blocked from entering another country by June 30? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 65d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr BUY Yes 5¢ $1 65d
Will MrBeast's latest video get less than 63 million views on day 4? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 65d
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? BUY No 84¢ $1 65d
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 74¢ $1 65d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 65d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 65d
Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 66d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 66d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-05? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 67d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-05? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 67d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-04? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 68d
Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 68d
ChatGPT Outage by April 10? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -6.7% -15.6% 0% 0% -15.6%
≤30d 6 -26.5% -33.5% 17% 17% -32.9%
≤90d 29 -23.3% -30.6% 28% 24% -35.6%
all 29 -23.3% -30.6% 28% 24% -35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 24% -35.6%
10% -37.3% 24% -41.8%
15% -43.3% 21% -47.4%
20% -48.9% 17% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 59 history records