Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:36:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

5D 0x5d7a…ad7d other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$242 (+77%) realized +$252 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +124% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +103% what you keep after slip

Net edge+103%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$105per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 144d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+103.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+124.5%	+103.1%	100%	100%	+95.8%
≤30d	2	+124.5%	+103.1%	100%	100%	+95.8%
≤90d	2	+124.5%	+103.1%	100%	100%	+95.8%
all	2	+124.5%	+103.1%	100%	100%	+95.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+103.1%	100%	+95.8%
10%	+83.6%	100%	+77.1%
15%	+65.9%	100%	+60.0%
20%	+49.6%	100%	+44.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +116% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +124% · $-wt +116% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$119 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage

Net worth$100

Realized+$252

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage144d

Avg bet$105

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	64¢	$110	$100	−$10 (-9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$203	+$236	+116%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?	Jun 17	$1	+$1	+133%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$111	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	35¢	$102	23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$102	24h
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?	BUY Yes	43¢	$1	144d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.68 · official $99.68 (match) · 6 history records