Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:06:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d80…1f9d other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$378 (-14%) realized −$55 · open −$323
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$2,280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$318
sports 2% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +65.4% +49.7% 67% 50% -49.5%
≤30d 9 +10.3% -0.2% 44% 33% -52.0%
≤90d 9 +10.3% -0.2% 44% 33% -52.0%
all 9 +10.3% -0.2% 44% 33% -52.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 33% -52.0%
10% -9.8% 33% -56.6%
15% -18.5% 22% -60.8%
20% -26.5% 11% -64.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$2,280
Realized−$55
Unrealized−$323
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage7d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,687 $1,387 −$300 (-18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $626 $601 −$25 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $290 $292 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $2 +$8 +510%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $9 +$1 +8%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $8 +$2 +26%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +49%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $292 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $392 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $65 24h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $372 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $294 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $228 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,280.44 · official $2,280.44 (match) · 64 history records