Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:49:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d81…8d1a crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$522 (-15%) realized −$522 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%26W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day49.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$676
sports 12% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -22.1% -29.5% 41% 33% -25.3%
≤30d 63 -22.1% -29.5% 41% 33% -25.3%
≤90d 63 -22.1% -29.5% 41% 33% -25.3%
all 63 -22.1% -29.5% 41% 33% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.5% 33% -25.3%
10% ← realistic here -36.2% 22% -32.5%
15% -42.4% 19% -39.0%
20% -48.0% 16% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$43 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$522
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses26 / 37
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage2d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day49.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $109 +$24 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $127 +$26 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $126 +$25 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$76 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $127 −$25 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$114 +433%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$36 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $78 −$45 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$53 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$52 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$63 +240%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$95 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$9 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records