Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:03:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d82…d90a other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,865 (-10%) realized −$5,545 · open −$320
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate69%22W / 10L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,699per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$256
7 days−$80
14 days+$137
30 days+$427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$7,080
sports 7% +$472
tech 3% +$176
crypto 0% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -7.6% -16.4% 78% 44% -10.4%
≤30d 14 +1.2% -8.4% 86% 57% -6.1%
≤90d 32 -11.7% -20.1% 69% 28% -19.4%
all 32 -11.7% -20.1% 69% 28% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 28% -19.4%
10% -27.8% 12% -27.1%
15% -34.8% 0% -34.2%
20% -41.1% 0% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$2,471) neutral
Persistence
early -25% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$934 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,545
Unrealized−$320
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses22 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage75d
Avg bet$1,699
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $320 $0 −$320 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
OpenGradient FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 14 $233 −$217 -93%
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 14 $874 −$874 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,328 +$172 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 +$23 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,863 +$137 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $466 +$34 +7%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1,129 +$341 +30%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $372 +$128 +34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $1,918 +$176 +9%
Citrea FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 07 $470 +$30 +6%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 07 $813 +$187 +23%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 26 $515 +$83 +16%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 25 $240 +$53 +22%
Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 21 $840 +$154 +18%
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 04 $824 +$56 +7%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 03 $1,164 +$81 +7%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 30 $1,119 +$73 +6%
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 22 $2,117 −$2,046 -97%
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 22 $3,007 −$1,012 -34%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 22 $3,069 −$3,062 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 21 $3,792 +$156 +4%
USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 21 $125 +$4 +3%
Sentio FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Sentio FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 17 $1,339 −$1,339 -100%
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 16 $2,471 −$46 -2%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 14 $5,506 +$439 +8%
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 13 $5,489 +$144 +3%
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 13 $6,823 +$735 +11%
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 04 $581 +$31 +5%
Mezo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 02 $734 +$10 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $1,992 −$67 -3%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 01 $4,178 −$535 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $323 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 78¢ $221 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $204 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $425 22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $903 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 93¢ $466 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1,863 25h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 98¢ $664 25h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 98¢ $200 25h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 98¢ $92 25h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 98¢ $200 25h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 98¢ $314 25h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $305 25h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 82¢ $824 34h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $148 46h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $224 46h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 100¢ $1,565 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 100¢ $528 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 91¢ $1,918 8d
Citrea FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $442 19d
Citrea FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $28 19d
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $598 20d
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? SELL Yes 29¢ $189 21d
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? SELL Yes 29¢ $60 21d
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 85¢ $515 21d
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? SELL Yes 33¢ $45 21d
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $67 21d
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $124 21d
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $46 21d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 81¢ $602 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.25 (match) · 261 history records