Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5D
0x5d86…5073
world · 236 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$2,642 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,152 · open +$417
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,784
Realized+$1,152
Unrealized+$417
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses155 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)230 / 236
History coverage150d
Avg bet$357
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 6 History 230 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$608
7 days+$535
14 days+$545
30 days+$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 76¢ 84¢ $2,753 $3,042 +$289 (+11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 81¢ 89¢ $813 $887 +$74 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 76¢ 81¢ $469 $497 +$29 (+6%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? No 77¢ 89¢ $168 $195 +$27 (+16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 20¢ 19¢ $118 $114 −$4 (-3%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $48 $49 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $848 +$248 +29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $33 +$6 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$2 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $62 +$8 +13%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $250 +$14 +6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $4,587 +$213 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $432 +$120 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1,076 −$236 -22%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 10 $701 +$26 +4%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $620 +$173 +28%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $2,970 −$176 -6%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 08 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $72 +$39 +54%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $492 −$116 -24%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 08 $100 +$46 +46%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $695 +$172 +25%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 03 $6 +$4 +60%
Will Enrique Riquelme win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 03 $30 +$5 +17%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 03 $1 +$2 +124%
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? May 26 $203 +$33 +16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 25 $86 −$66 -77%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 25 $548 −$148 -27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 24 $2 −$2 -89%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May May 18 $74 −$66 -90%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $54 +$7 +13%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $93 +$14 +16%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $74 −$73 -99%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $123 −$121 -98%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 15 $118 +$5 +4%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 May 14 $66 +$24 +37%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 13 $7 −$7 -92%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec May 12 $1,008 +$113 +11%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $242 −$95 -39%
Chirayu Rana sued? May 10 $184 +$184 +100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 09 $21 −$7 -34%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 09 $82 +$82 +100%
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? May 08 $26 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $246 +$59 +24%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $218 −$13 -6%
Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy? May 06 $264 −$52 -20%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 02 $643 +$25 +4%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? May 01 $33 +$6 +17%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $11 −$1 -12%
Chirayu Rana divorced? May 01 $70 +$3 +4%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $65 +$3 +5%
Will Trump say "Karoline" or "Leavitt" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026? Apr 26 $102 +$19 +19%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec Apr 22 $1,288 +$751 +58%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Apr 22 $134 +$10 +8%
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 22 $65 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 56% −$316
politics 28% +$1,912
other 9% +$14
finance 3% +$343
tech 2% −$297
culture 1% +$23
sports 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 80¢ $54 51m
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $28 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $36 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $36 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $324 1h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $41 2h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 95¢ $4 2h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 96¢ $18 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $144 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $62 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $27 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $7 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $10 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $41 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $2 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $70 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $105 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $10 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $10 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $3 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $1 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $2 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $62 15h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 80¢ $1 16h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 80¢ $2 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $29 17h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 80¢ $43 17h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 72¢ $19 19h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 72¢ $45 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +12.2% +1.5% 69% 50% -5.8%
≤30d 24 +5.4% -4.6% 62% 50% -7.6%
≤90d 86 +7.0% -3.2% 66% 48% -0.6%
all 230 +3.4% -6.4% 67% 37% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 37% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 19% -16.9%
15% -23.6% 12% -25.0%
20% -31.1% 9% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,784.35 · official $4,782.35 (match) · 3500 history records