Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:12:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d86…52ac sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (471 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +572% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +396% what you keep after slip
Net edge+396%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$1,156per market
Trades / day471.0pace
Fees−$625est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4,795now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$35,690
other 4% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+507.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +571.6% +507.7% 67% 56% +379.6%
≤30d 9 +571.6% +507.7% 67% 56% +379.6%
≤90d 9 +571.6% +507.7% 67% 56% +379.6%
all 9 +571.6% +507.7% 67% 56% +379.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover471.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +507.7% 56% +379.6%
10% +449.5% 56% +333.7%
15% ← realistic here +396.4% 44% +291.8%
20% +347.7% 44% +253.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +460% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +572% · $-wt +460% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
34.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,031 vs −$165 · ×36.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×72.91 per $1 lost it wins $72.91
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4,795
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$625
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,156
Trades / day471.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $500 $508 +$8 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $3,094 +$294 +10%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $3,201 +$32 +1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $603 −$2 -0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $2,700 +$31,930 +1183%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $424 +$942 +222%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $138 +$309 +224%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $175 +$2,680 +1531%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $673 −$444 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 92¢ $497 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 92¢ $2 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 91¢ $2 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 91¢ $272 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 91¢ $2 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 91¢ $2 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 91¢ $209 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 91¢ $11 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 86¢ $34 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 86¢ $422 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 86¢ $43 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $497 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $497 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $497 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $201 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $200 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $201 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $201 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 99¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $200 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $200 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $200 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $200 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $200 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $200 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $200 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $200 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $200 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $200 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $200 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,795.42 · official $4,795.42 (match) · 471 history records