Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:49:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5D 0x5d8a…f2d9 world 23 markets active 8h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$22,971 (+15%) realized +$22,971 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate73%16W / 6L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$6,726per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$596est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16,476
7 days+$32,099
14 days+$31,251
30 days+$31,408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$23,625
sports 27% +$8,020
world 25% +$1,093
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +36.8% +23.8% 80% 60% +20.3%
≤30d 15 +26.4% +14.4% 80% 60% +11.3%
≤90d 22 +15.8% +4.8% 73% 50% +9.7%
all 22 +15.8% +4.8% 73% 50% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.8% 50% +9.7%
10% ← realistic here -5.2% 36% -0.8%
15% -14.4% 32% -10.4%
20% -22.8% 23% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$9,718) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,785 vs −$1,970 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.77 per $1 lost it wins $3.77
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22,971
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses16 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$596
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage89d
Avg bet$6,726
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20,691 +$13,752 +66%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $9,718 +$636 +6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19,997 +$5 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19,924 −$2,226 -11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9,952 +$4,309 +43%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $4,982 +$9,773 +196%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 Jun 19 $1,993 +$1,481 +74%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,023 +$2,725 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4,939 +$1,886 +38%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $248 −$242 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4,974 +$653 +13%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $14,948 +$3,206 +22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4,996 +$4,500 +90%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9,357 −$9,208 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4,969 +$157 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $1,996 −$12 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 05 $8,508 +$633 +7%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 05 $1,000 +$114 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $1,000 +$334 +33%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $1,396 −$128 -9%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 25 $3,985 +$394 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $34,443 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 24¢ $457 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $10,120 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10,114 13h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $10,354 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 94¢ $10,282 13h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $9,718 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 89¢ $9,720 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $19,997 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $17,697 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $9,834 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10,090 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $14,261 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $9,952 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY $103 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 57¢ $1,993 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 33¢ $4,982 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,748 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $6,826 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $4,939 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $5,023 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $248 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $2,813 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $2,815 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $3,672 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $1,303 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 87¢ $18,155 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $14,948 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 91¢ $9,497 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $4,996 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records