Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:51:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5d8c…8527 sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$359 (+1%) realized +$425 · open −$66
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate71%50W / 20L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$390per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$147
sports 13% +$231
other 7% −$75
politics 0% +$34
crypto 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.7% -13.8% 60% 40% -11.8%
≤30d 5 -4.7% -13.8% 60% 40% -11.8%
≤90d 5 -4.7% -13.8% 60% 40% -11.8%
all 70 -1.5% -10.9% 71% 16% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 16% -8.2%
10% -19.4% 9% -17.0%
15% -27.2% 6% -25.0%
20% -34.3% 6% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$908) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.19 per $1 lost it wins $3.19
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$425
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses50 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage589d
Avg bet$390
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 48¢ $108 $86 −$22 (-21%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $22 $32 +$10 (+43%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ $68 $15 −$53 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $52 −$22 -43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $64 −$48 -75%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $26 +$16 +59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $68 +$24 +35%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? Jun 11 $969 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 07 $60 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $949 +$19 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 24 $935 +$12 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 21 $920 +$16 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 18 $919 +$2 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 18 $573 +$7 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 17 $908 +$4 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 16 $905 +$3 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Feb 15 $901 +$5 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Feb 14 $1,374 +$3 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 12 $1,367 +$7 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 11 $1,362 +$5 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 10 $1,319 +$42 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Feb 09 $1,312 +$8 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 08 $1,308 +$4 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 07 $1,301 +$7 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)? Feb 06 $1,298 +$3 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 3, 2026 (ET)? Feb 04 $1,163 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Feb 03 $1,299 −$1 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Feb 02 $1,296 +$3 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $1,293 −$1 -0%
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Jan 30 $850 +$47 +6%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jan 30 $332 +$68 +20%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina Jan 29 $700 +$28 +4%
Australian Open Men's: Jamie Mackenzie vs Flynn Thomas Jan 28 $251 +$19 +7%
Australian Open Men's: Matei Todoran vs Kai Thompson Jan 27 $130 −$44 -34%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur Jan 27 $203 +$7 +3%
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Learner Tien Jan 27 $115 +$65 +56%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Iva Jovic Jan 26 $202 −$2 -1%
Australian Open Men's: Luciano Darderi vs Jannik Sinner Jan 26 $623 +$25 +4%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $32 −$27 -82%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Jan 25 $88 +$12 +14%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jan 25 $148 −$2 -1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 25 $204 −$5 -2%
Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch? Jan 18 $132 +$22 +17%
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jan 16 $12 $0 -2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 15 $24 $0 +1%
Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026? Jan 12 $0 $0 -80%
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026? Jan 12 $11 −$2 -16%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jan 12 $11 $0 +3%
Cowboys vs. Commanders Dec 27 $24 +$6 +27%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 04 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 04 $5 $0 -5%
Will Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk be the next President of Poland? May 04 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $29 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $16 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $64 2d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 4d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $109 4d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $69 4d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $21 4d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $10 4d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $6 4d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $5 4d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $26 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $34 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 92¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 92¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 88¢ $28 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 68¢ $16 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 68¢ $27 6d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 100¢ $969 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $61 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $60 102d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $109 112d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 112d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.70 · official $132.70 (match) · 204 history records