Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:30:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5D 0x5d8c…3816 sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$682 (+15%) realized +$682 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%23W / 17L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$374
7 days−$239
14 days−$166
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$588
crypto 16% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -21.7% -29.2% 45% 35% -27.0%
≤30d 37 +6.0% -4.1% 54% 49% -10.4%
≤90d 40 +12.3% +1.6% 58% 52% +0.3%
all 40 +12.3% +1.6% 58% 52% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 52% +0.3%
10% -8.1% 52% -9.3%
15% -17.0% 48% -18.0%
20% -25.2% 48% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$89 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$682
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses23 / 17
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage38d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$23 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $124 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $57 −$54 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$24 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $65 +$35 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $35 +$35 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 22 $173 −$173 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $27 +$27 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $191 +$17 +9%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $100 +$118 +118%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $25 +$73 +293%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $87 +$85 +98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $40 +$52 +131%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $36 +$56 +155%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $70 +$65 +94%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$95 +94%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 04 $93 −$93 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 04 $92 −$92 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla Jun 04 $92 −$92 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 04 $302 −$302 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 04 $288 −$288 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $83 +$153 +184%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $253 +$173 +68%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 03 $406 +$105 +26%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $258 +$146 +57%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $302 +$170 +56%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $101 +$86 +85%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $180 +$113 +63%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $260 +$316 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $137 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 240 history records